徐子雯
By Xu Ziwen
据日本《读卖新闻》报道，由前防卫大臣小野寺五典任会长的安全保障调查会，近日就修订《国家安全保障战略》《防卫计划大纲》《中期防卫力量整备计划》提出建议，呼吁日本防卫费向北大西洋公约组织成员国军费开支目标看齐，即在国内生产总值中的比例达到2%，且在5年内达成。
Japan"s Yomiuri Shinbunreported that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)"s Research Commission on Security, which was chaired by former defense minister Itsunori Onodera, recently proposed to revise the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Program Guidelines, and the Mid-term Defense Program. It called for increasing Japan’s defense expenditure to 2% of GDP, the standard for NATO members, in the next five years.
迫不及待修订
Hurried revision
《国家安全保障战略》是日本外交和防卫政策的基本方针，今年将迎来自2013年制定以来的首次修订。
The National Security Strategy, the fundamental guidebook on Japan"s diplomatic and defense policies, will have its first revision since being formulated in 2013.
中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所所长樊小菊接受采访时表示，此举是日本借国际形势变化加紧实施军事大国化目标的具体体现，反映了日本右翼势力企图通过渲染国际紧张局势突破和平宪法限制，从而实现“普通国家化 ”的目标。
Fan Xiaoju, director of the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), said in an interview that the revision is a step taken by Japan toward its goal of becoming a major military country when the international situation is going through fast changes. It reflects the Japanese right-wing forces" attempt to break through the limitations imposed by the Peace Constitution by hyping up international tension and consequently become a "normal" country.
此次安全保障调查会明确提出，要在5年内实现将防卫费占比达到2%以上的目标，且首次为该目标设期限。“设定5年期限反映了日本部分政治势力判断俄乌冲突使得国际国内舆论环境对实现这一目标非常有利，加上同为二战战败国的德国已经率先提出2%的目标，因此急欲抓住机会以取得实质性突破。”樊小菊说。
The Research Commission on Security explicitly proposed to increase the defense spending to over 2% of GDP within five years, the first time a timeline was set for reaching the percentage. "Setting the five-year term indicates that some political forces in Japan reckon that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has turned international and domestic public opinions in favor of realizing such a goal. Besides, Germany, another losing country in WWII, has already put forth the 2% goal, making Japan all the more eager to seize the opportunity and make some substantial progress on the defense front," said Fan Xiaoju.
一再突破底线
Constant crossing of line
除了提高防卫费之外，草案还写明，以自卫目的破坏导弹发射基地的“对敌基地攻击能力”可以在“专守防卫的理念下拥有”。攻击对象“并不限于导弹基地，还包括指挥统筹部门”。共同社报道称，以俄乌冲突为由头，安全保障调查会还建议放宽“防卫装备转移三原则”。
In addition to increasing defense expenses, the draft also considered allowing "enemy base strike capabilities" that are aimed at crippling an enemy missile launch base as an act of self-defense, the target of attack not limited to the missile base, but also including commanding centers. Kyodo News reported that the Research Commission on Security also suggested loosening the "Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology" on the excuse of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
“近年来，日本在扩军和修宪方面一再突破底线，与国际环境的变化和日本国内政治生态的改变密切相关。”樊小菊分析，一方面，日本长期存在对美日同盟“非对称性”所带来的不确定性的担忧，对美国能在多大程度上保护日本“不托底”，日本不少政治精英逐步由美国单方面保护日本转向美日“共同防卫”。另一方面，右翼保守势力长期以来渲染、鼓噪“中国威胁论”，不断为保守势力强化军备、应对“威胁”制造借口。同时，近年来，日本坚持走和平道路的在野党力量逐步削弱，在外交、安全政策上对执政党难以形成有效平衡，使得日本在扩军道路上越走越远。
"In recent years, Japan has kept crossing the line on military expansion and constitutional revision, which is closely related with the changes both in the international environment and in its own domestic political ecology." According to Fan, Japan is consistently worried about the uncertainties stemming from the "asymmetric relation" within its alliance with the US. As the US never makes a clear commitment as to how far it will go to protect Japan, many Japanese political elites have turned from relying on America"s one-way protection of Japan to "joint defense" between the two countries. On the other hand, the conservative right-wingers in Japan have been hyping and clamoring about "China threats" for many years just to fabricate the excuse to intensify Japan"s military to respond to such "threats". Besides, the opposition parties that are for a peaceful path have become weaker and unable to effectively counterbalance the ruling party on diplomatic and security policies. As a result, the country is going further down the path of military expansion.
危及地区和平
A threat to regional peace
据报道，日本还将修订制定防卫力整备目标的《防卫计划大纲》和估算之后5年防卫费的《中期防卫力整备计划》，内容包括如何应对因俄乌战事而变化的安保环境。有媒体指出，自民党的目的是，以俄乌战事为契机，引导日本民众就如何应对日本周边可能出现的所谓“非常事态”进行讨论。
It is reported that Japan will also revise the National Defense Program Guidelines that set goals on military development and the Mid-term Defense Program that makes a five-year estimate on defense spending, including how to respond to the security environment that has changed because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Some media pointed out that what the LDP really wanted was, to take the opportunity of the conflict and launch a public debate on how to deal with the so-called "emergency state" that might appear around Japan.
“此次修订将是日本安全战略和政策的重大调整，主要调整方向包括强调外部军事威胁、大幅提高军费以及发展进攻性军事力量等。”樊小菊认为，从目前情况看，这将对地区局势造成显著负面影响：一是增加地区对抗氛围，恶化地区安全形势；二是使得地区军备竞赛升级风险上升；三是违背自身长期秉持的走和平道路的国际承诺，将损害日本与周边国家间的互信；四是增加地区合作障碍，不利于形成解决地区热点问题、推动区域经济合作等的良好政治氛围。
"The revision will be a major adjustment of Japan"s security strategy and policies, which is intended to emphasize external military threats and allow the country to significantly increase military expenditure and develop aggressive military forces," said Fan. Judging from the current situation, the revision will cause considerable negative effects on the region in the following ways. First, it will aggravate regional confrontation and security status; second, it is likely to escalate a regional arms race; third, it violates Japan"s long-held international commitment to following a peaceful path of development and will damage the mutual trust between it and its neighboring countries; and fourth, it will hamper regional cooperation because a political atmosphere conducive to solving hotspot issues and promoting economic cooperation in the region will be hard to form.
Editor"s note:This article is originally published on haiwainet.cn, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
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