海 宁
By Hai Ning
俄乌冲突持续之际，德国国防政策出现了一系列引人注目的调整。
A series of dramatic changes in Germany’s defense policy has been made amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
其先是大幅提升军费预算，宣布设立总额达1000亿欧元的“特别基金”扩充军备，且今后每年都将把国防开支占国内生产总值的比重提高到北约要求的2%以上。接着又打破原有禁忌，首次公开向“战乱地区国家”输送防空和反坦克 等致命性武器。接下来，德国还拟派遣1.37万名官兵加入“北约反应部队”。不少评论人士惊呼：德国将告别二战后奉行数十年之久的“军事克制”文化和“和平主义”，这将重构欧洲军事和政治格局。
Germany has significantly ramped up defense spending at first, committing a special fund of 100 billion euros for armament projects, and announcing to up its defense budget to over 2% of the GDP every year in the future as required by the NATO. Then it blatantly supplied lethal weapons such as air defense and anti-tank systems to the “war-torn country ” for the first time. Next, it has planned to send 13,700 officers and soldiers to join the NATO Response Force (NRF). As many commentators have exclaimed, Germany intends to bid farewell to its decades-long culture of military restraint spiced with a good deal of pacifism that Germany has pursued since the end of WWII, a move to reshape Europe’s military and political landscape.
的确，德国国防政策的转变并非偶然。除应对俄乌冲突带来的安全压力外，相关动作也有增强本国及欧盟的“战略自主”、维系德美战略伙伴关系等考量。然而，研判德国国防政策是否就此彻底“改弦更张”乃至“暴走”，还要进行多个方面的观察。
Indeed, it is no accident to the shift in Germany’s defense policy. In addition to coping with the security pressure brought about by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Germany also considered enhancing the “strategic autonomy” of Germany and the EU and maintaining the Germany-US strategic partnership. However, observation of multiple aspects is yet to be made in regard to judge whether Germany’s defense policy has completely “changed its course” or even “gone out of control”.
德国自身的国防实力。德国防军目前的加力发展，很大程度上是对此前“欠账”的补偿。由于军费在国内生产总值中占比长期过低，德国防军装备老旧问题十分突出。德国本次新增军费拟解决的“燃眉之急”，居然是添置最基本的防弹背心、头盔、保暖衣和夜视仪等单兵装备。德国国防部长兰布雷希特曾表示：“与其说德国在扩充军备，不如说是在解决最基本的防务需要。”
Germany’s own defense capability has to be taken into account.The accelerated investment in German defense at present is largely a compensation for the previous “arrear”. Due to the long-term low proportion of military expenditure to its GDP, the problem of outdated equipment in Germany’s military has been highly prominent. The “urgent need” that Germany has intended to solve in increasing its defense spending is actually to purchase the most basic individual equipment including bulletproof vests, helmets, thermal clothing and night vision goggles. According to German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht, Germany is addressing its most basic defense needs, instead of building up arms.
西方盟国的容忍度。北约的一大主要职能，就是“把德国人按住”。欧盟的重要功能之一，也是确保一个“欧洲的德国”，避免出现“德国的欧洲”。二战后，德军总参谋部被解散，德国的境外军事行动更多时候只能在北约和欧盟的框架下进行。
The tolerance of Germany’s Western allies has to be considered.One of NATO’s main functions lies in “holding down the Germans”. In other words, to ensure a “Germany in Europe” rather than a “German Europe” is one of the important functions of the EU. After WWII, Germany’s General Staff Headquarters was disbanded, and Germany’s overseas military operations have often been carried out under the framework of the NATO and EU.
事实上，德国昔日赖以发动侵略战争的国防工业和指挥机构，早已被深度整合进西方特别是欧洲防务体系，套上了“一体化”的“笼头”。为消除盟友疑虑，德国多项重要装备研发项目都是多国合作性质，战斗机等重大军购项目也优先考虑美制装备或欧洲多国共同研制的装备。在可预见的将来，德国并不打算发展常规远程进攻性武器，更不会“拥核”，德国防军也很难摆脱“本土防卫型”这一根本底色。
In fact, the defense industry and command institutions on which Germany used to depend to launch wars of aggression have long been deeply integrated into the Western, especially European, defense system, trapped by the “bridle” of “integration”. In order to dispel the doubts of its allies, most of Germany’s major equipment R&D development projects have been in multinational cooperation, and major military purchase projects such as fighter jets have also given priority to US-made equipment or those jointly developed by European countries. For the foreseeable future, Germany will not develop conventional long-range strike weapons, let alone “nuclear weapons”. So it will be difficult for Germany to get rid of the fundamental background of Homeland Defens e.
德国国家大战略的走向。德国不仅在历史问题上成功取得周边国家的谅解，还通过深度融入欧洲一体化进程，使本国的经济繁荣和政治崛起获得普遍认可。基于上述经验，德国政界一向主张通过多边协商途径解决国际争端，认为动辄使用武力不合时宜。从反对伊拉克战争，到在利比亚战争、乌克兰危机中与美国拉开距离，都是例证。
The direction of Germany’s national strategy to take has to be analyzed.Germany has successfully won the understanding of its neighboring countries on historical issues and meanwhile gained universal recognition for its economic prosperity and political rise through in-depth integration into the process of European integration. Based on the above-mentioned experience, German political circles have always advocated the settlement of international disputes through multilateral consultation and considered it inappropriate to resort to force at will, as shown by its opposition to the Iraq War, distancing itself from the US in the Libyan War and the Ukraine crisis.
在俄乌冲突问题上，虽然德国迫于美国压力加入对俄制裁，但德国政界和民众仍在讨论和反思：激化德俄矛盾，陷入军备竞赛恐慌，是否必要和明智？困扰德国乃至欧洲安全的，到底是防务乏力，还是更深层次的结构问题？这些问题的答案，将直接关系到德国未来国防政策的走向。
In regard to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although Germany has been forced to impose sanctions against Russia under pressure from the US, the German politicians and the public have been still discussing and reflecting on the problems as follows. Is it necessary and wise to worsen the Germany-Russia relations, resulting in a panic of arms race? What has troubled the security of Germany and even Europe, its weak defense capability or structural problem at a deeper level? The answers to these questions will directly guide the direction of Germany’s defense policy adopted in the future.
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